中国空间科学技术

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航天器热模型蒙特卡罗法参数分析及健壮度评估研究

杨沪宁;钟奇;   

  1. 北京空间飞行器总体设计部;
  • 发布日期:2009-10-25

Monte Carlo Method for Thermal Model of Spacecraft Parametric Analysis and Robustness Determination

Yang Huning Zhong Qi(Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering,Beijing 100094)   

  • Online:2009-10-25

被引次数

7

摘要： 针对传统航天器热模型的参数分析及温度余量选择存在的缺陷,提出了基于蒙特卡罗法的参数分析及健壮度评估方法。文章首先以航天器设备温度为因变量,以各不确定参数为自变量,应用蒙特卡罗法模拟取样,得到动态参数样本;通过样本的统计式推导,给出了参数分析及健壮度评估的求解方法。结合某星热模型进行了仿真应用,结果表明:与传统方法相比,蒙特卡罗法不但可以提高参数分析的效率,而且量化了各不确定参数敏感性以及设备温度分布概率,为设计人员判断设备温度余量提供数值依据。

关键词: 蒙特卡罗法, 参数分析, 温度场, 热分析, 航天器

Abstract: Based on the development demand of spacecraft thermal parametric analysis and robustness determination,Monte Carlo(MC) design schemes were developed.First,the satellite equipment′s temperature was assumed as dependent variables,and stochastic parameters were assumed as independent variables.Then Monte Carlo method was applied to generate dynamic responds of the thermal model.By analyzing the statistical results,formulas for parametric analysis and robustness calculation were deduced.At last,a numerical simulation example was given to correlate stochastic parameters and calculate robustness for a satellite instrument.Simulation results show that MC scenario streamlines parametric sensibility and margin estimation,and produces numerical results.Furthermore,the results can be used to instruct the engineering design.