中国空间科学技术

• •    

可靠性预计中的置信度问题研究

郭维长   

  1. 北京空间飞行器总体设计部 北京100086
  • 发布日期:2002-12-25

A Study on Confidence Level in Reliability Prediction

Guo Weichang (Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering, Beijing 100086)$$$$   

  • Published:2002-12-25

摘要： 在电子设备可靠性预计的传统方法中引入置信度概念 ,从而提出一种置信的可靠性预计方法。用这两种方法分别预计单元设备、表决系统和并联系统的可靠性并加以比较 ,结果表明 ,一种潜在的保守性的系统性的误差得以消除 ,因此置信方法能够更加准确地预计系统可靠性。

关键词: 置信界限, 可靠性预计, 航天器

Abstract: The concept of confidence level is introduced into process of reliability prediction on electronical equipments. A novel method of reliability prediction with confidence level is established sequentially. The reliability of an unit equipment, the reliability of a voting system and the reliability of a parallel system are predicted respectively and the results are compared by using these methods. The results show that a potential conservative systemic error is eliminated. Hence, the system reliability can be predicted more accura tely by using this novel method.