Abstract: Based on the development demand of spacecraft thermal parametric analysis and robustness determination,Monte Carlo(MC) design schemes were developed.First,the satellite equipment′s temperature was assumed as dependent variables,and stochastic parameters were assumed as independent variables.Then Monte Carlo method was applied to generate dynamic responds of the thermal model.By analyzing the statistical results,formulas for parametric analysis and robustness calculation were deduced.At last,a numerical simulation example was given to correlate stochastic parameters and calculate robustness for a satellite instrument.Simulation results show that MC scenario streamlines parametric sensibility and margin estimation,and produces numerical results.Furthermore,the results can be used to instruct the engineering design.