Abstract: The mechanism of project risk caused by human and organization factors was revealed, and a model of risk analysis for aerospace engineering project incorporating the human and organization factors based on the mechanism was proposed. Based on the model, the quality of spacecraft component manufacturing considering the human and organization factors was evaluated, and then the consistency probability between the operational task quality  and the different types of defect was assessed, and the defect severity was calculated according to Poisson distribution. Finally, the prior default rate of component was updated based on Bayesian theorem. The model framework was validated by an aerospace engineering project with modified data.

Key words: Risk analysis, Human and organization factors, Bayesian theorem, Aerospace engineering project