Abstract: Aiming at the reliability problem of satellite system, a method for satellite reliability analysis based on dynamic fault tree was proposed. The dynamic fault tree model of three subsystems of satellite power, attitude and orbit control and propulsion was established by combining Markov chain and binary decision diagram. On this basis, the random fault model of satellite was obtained, and the reliability model of satellite was established by taking the depletion fault into consideration. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate and analyze the random fault model, and its performance was compared with Weibull distribution model. The simulation results show that this method can effectively analyze the random fault of satellite, has the advantages of high computational accuracy and high efficiency, and can simulate the dynamic behavior of random fault of satellite components more effectively.

Key words: satellite reliability, random fault model, Markov chains, binary decision diagram, Monte Carlo simulation, Weibull distribution