Chinese Space Science and Technology

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A Study on Confidence Level in Reliability Prediction

Guo Weichang (Beijing Institute of Spacecraft System Engineering, Beijing 100086)$$$$   

  • Online:2002-12-25

Abstract: The concept of confidence level is introduced into process of reliability prediction on electronical equipments. A novel method of reliability prediction with confidence level is established sequentially. The reliability of an unit equipment, the reliability of a voting system and the reliability of a parallel system are predicted respectively and the results are compared by using these methods. The results show that a potential conservative systemic error is eliminated. Hence, the system reliability can be predicted more accura tely by using this novel method.