中国空间科学技术

中国空间科学技术 ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 76-83.doi: 10.16708/j.cnki.1000-758X.2018.0047

• 技术交流 • 上一篇    

多机理下的卫星寿命预测方法与应用

赵海涛*，杨慧，熊笑   

  1. 北京空间飞行器总体设计部, 北京 100094
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-28 修回日期:2017-12-20 接受日期:2018-05-15 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-06-07
  • 通讯作者: 赵海涛(1976-)，男，高工，zhtsailor@163.com，研究方向为航天器可靠性、可用性工程

Satellitelife prediction method anditsapplication by multiple mechanisms

ZHAO Haitao∗, YANG Hui, XIONG Xiao   

  1. Beijing Institute of Space craft System Engineering, Beijing 100094, China
  • Received:2017-04-28 Revised:2017-12-20 Accepted:2018-05-15 Published:2018-08-25 Online:2018-06-07

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摘要： 针对卫星寿命预测的需求和以往方法未考虑突发故障及退化失效的不足，提出了综合多种机理进行寿命预测的方法。归纳了星上产品的寿命特征和卫星到寿原因，指出了卫星随机失效的分布特征；针对随机失效,建立随单星工作时间和系统结构变化的剩余寿命预测模型，给出了利用动态的在轨工作状态数据求解多阶段分布参数的算法，从而实现剩余寿命的动态分析；综合随机失效、退化、消耗及其在轨变化规律，提出了适用于多机理的、竞争性的寿命预测方法。案例分析表明，综合考虑突发故障、退化失效和消耗,可以得到更合理的寿命预测结果,在星座维持策略中提高备份星计划的可信性。

关键词: 卫星, 星座, 剩余寿命, 寿命预测, 蒙特卡罗仿真, 竞争失效

Abstract: Based on the realistic requirement of satellite life prediction and the deficienciesin previous methods,anewlifeprediction methodconsidering multiple mechanisms wasproposed．The life characteristics of satellite products and the causes for the end of satellite life were analyzed. Considering random failure, a life prediction model updated with satellite operating timeand system components was proposed, and the method solving multi-stage distribution parameters wasgiven． Based on this, the random failure, degradationand exhaustion were considered synthetically, and a new life prediction method was built. A case study shows that the new method can be used to get the more depend able results, which are very important for the constellation maintenance strategy．

Key words: satellite, constellation, remaining life, life prediction, Monte-Carlo simulation, competitivefailure