中国空间科学技术

中国空间科学技术 ›› 2024, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (1): 54-64.doi: 10.16708/j.cnki.1000-758X.2024.0006

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于TLE数据的大气密度反演与校正

张衷韬，张亚坤，王斌   

  1. 1.航天工程大学研究生院，北京101400
    2.航天工程大学电子与光学工程系，北京101400
  • 出版日期:2024-02-25 发布日期:2024-02-01

Thermospheric density determination and empirical model correction based on TLE data

ZHANG Zhongtao，ZHANG Yakun，WANG Bin   

  1. 1.Graduate School of Space Engineering University，Beijing 101400，China
    2.Department of Electronic and Optical Engineering，Space Engineering University，Beijing 101400，China

  • Published:2024-02-25 Online:2024-02-01

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摘要： 用于航天器轨道预报的热层密度模型普遍存在30%左右的误差，影响LEO卫星的精密轨道确定和载荷控制。基于低轨航天器平运动变化与大气密度的关系，使用GRACE（gravity recovery and climate experiment）卫星TLE数据反演2003、2007年沿轨大气密度，通过比较反演值、模型值和实测值的关系分析误差产生原因，使用对数正态分布拟合密度比值。通过分析太阳辐射、地磁指数对大气密度变化的影响，提出一种基于空间环境指数的热层大气密度模型校正与预报方式。使用该方法对2003、2004、2007、2008年的MSIS86模型计算密度进行修正，将模型平均相对误差从33.33%~59.62%降低到11.55%~15.13%，太阳活动低年改进量是高年的1.5~2倍。对2009年经验模型结果进行预报校正，将预报误差降低36~49%，提高了模型精度。

关键词: 热层密度反演, MSIS-86大气模型, 大气模型校正, 两行轨道根数, 空间环境指数

Abstract:  The thermosphere density model used for spacecraft orbit prediction generally has an error of about 30%，which affects the precise orbit determination and load control of LEO satellites.Based on the relationship between the change of horizontal motion of the low-orbit spacecraft and the atmospheric density，the TLE data of the GRACE（gravity recovery and climate experiment）satellite were used to invert the atmospheric density along the orbit in 2003 and 2007.After concluding the cause of the error in the relational analysis，the lognormal distribution was used to fit the density ratios.By analyzing the influence of solar radiation and geomagnetic index on atmospheric density changes，a correction and forecasting method of thermospheric density model based on space environment index was proposed.This method was used to correct the calculated density of the MSIS86 model in 2003，2004，2007 and 2008，the average relative error of the model was reduced from 33.33%~59.62% to 11.55%~15.13%，and the improvement in low solar activity years is 1.5~2 times of high solar activity years.The forecast correction was carried out on the empirical model results in 2009，which reduced the forecast error by 3649% and improved the model accuracy.

Key words:  , thermospheric density determination；MSIS-86 atmospheric model；atmospheric model correction；two-line element sets（TLEs）；space weather index