Abstract: The number of man—made objects orbiting around the earthhas become so high that collision risks have to be taken into account inthe mission planing and operation of spacecraft,especially of manned spa-cecrafts. In this paper,the scenarios for the future development of spacedebris and collision probabilities are derived. A further steady increase ofthe basic population would always lead to and speed up a chain reactioncollisions.

Key words: Spacecraft debris, Environment protection, Space hazard